The Best Opportunities Rarely Look Rational


The horizon never comes with guarantees.
Bali, Indonesia

Hi Reader,

I came across an interesting clip this week following the SpaceX IPO.

Elon Musk reflected on the early days of SpaceX and said something most founders rarely admit:

He thought the company would probably fail.

Not 50%.

Not “it might be difficult.”

Fail.

The IPO is impressive.

The valuation is impressive.

The technology is impressive.

But I don’t think that’s the most interesting lesson.

The most interesting lesson is that one of the most valuable companies in history was built by someone who genuinely believed failure was a likely outcome.

A lot of founders talk about conviction after they succeed.

Very few talk about conviction before anyone believes them.

We often confuse conviction with certainty.

They’re not the same thing.

Certainty says:

“I know this will work.”

Conviction says:

“I don’t know if this will work, but it’s important enough to attempt anyway.”

That’s a very different mindset.

Most meaningful things in life begin with incomplete information.

Starting a company.

Changing careers.

Investing capital.

Building a product.

Moving countries.

Writing a book.

Falling in love.

None come with guarantees.

The future is always uncertain.

The question is whether the opportunity is compelling enough to justify the uncertainty.

I’ve been thinking about this quite a lot recently.

Partly because of conversations here in Bali with founders building ambitious businesses.

Partly because every entrepreneur eventually faces the same reality:

You rarely get certainty.

You make decisions with the information you have.

Then you find out.

Markets often celebrate outcomes.

Entrepreneurs understand the process.

And the process is usually much messier than people realise.

SpaceX wasn’t built because success was likely.

It was built because the mission was worth pursuing even if failure was probable.

I suspect many of the most important things in life follow the same rule.

More soon,

Dilan

👉 www.yoorz.ai

Founder & CEO yoorz.ai Limited, Dubai | Dilan Abeya Ltd., UK | IG: @dilanabeya | LinkedIN: Dilan Abeya | FREE TRIAL AI DILAN: Click here | Web: yoorz.ai | www.dilanabeya.com

Dilan Abeya

My name is Dilan Abeya. I am a life coach who recently graduated from the Jay Shetty Certification School, which is accredited by the Association for Coaching and OTHM approved. I was encouraged to become a life coach because I want to help and serve others who are in need of support. Why? Because I’ve been in some very “dark” times myself - my personal life blew up, I had an incredibly acrimonious divorce, still suffering parental alienation and I lost virtually everything, coupled with my prior career being a very frustrating environment, nothing felt like it was working. But deep down inside, I knew there was more for me in life and that I wanted better for myself and I believe others do too. So, I developed ways to help myself in those moments when I was alone, and I want to help others learn how to help themselves, because there are better times ahead, and ways to help oneself get there. Equally, I know how expensive it is to get professional help, especially when you’re in need, and given suicide rates (especially in men) remain at very high levels (**1 is too high), that would suggest that awareness and access to support is still not getting through to people when they really need it. So, I’m trying to make professional help that is expensive, more accessible to people who might just want to deal with things privately to begin with. Moreover, for people to know that there are personalised resources available and accessible whenever they want. As such, I developed “A.I DILAN” - a virtual version of myself! "A.I DILAN" is a digital product. A quick-help guide combining Al TECH with SELF-CARE. Built for anyone to ask questions to via WhatsApp when they need personalised inspiration or motivation, as if they were messaging me 1-ON-1 but available 24/7 from anywhere in the world. Termed "A.I DILAN" because it's based on what l've written about on my socials, life lessons from my past & supported by what I have learned from my Jay Shetty Life Coaching Certification. Its knowledge base is ChatGPT4 fuelled, so it's vast beyond what I write about, incase people have questions on topics outside of my realm. Benefits include: - Knowledge from a Certified Jay Shetty Life Coach. - Experience-based tips from my life lessons thus far. - Easy-to-use via WhatsApp: an APP most already have. - "Quick-help" extensive resource for guidance. - Natural conversational tone programmed to mimic me. - Confidential and secure. - 24/7 Global. So, for those moments when someone is down & alone, "A.I DILAN" offers support for motivation & tips, trained to respond how I would in person, based on my content, in order to “help one, help oneself” whenever they need, helping people be more self-sufficient when they are on their own, or just want to be left to their own devices. If you’re open to it, I would greatly appreciate the opportunity to discuss this further with you, to make your community aware of this resource.

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